Comments on: O pais do futuro?

O pais do futuro?

kliuless — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 11:00:13 -0800

Lula's Brazil - "Compared with his predecessors, he had the imagination, born of social identification, to see that the Brazilian state could afford to be more generous to the least well-off, in ways that have made a substantial difference to their lives. But these concessions have come at no cost to the rich or comfortably-off, who in any absolute reckoning have done even better – far better – during these years. Does that really matter, it can be asked: isn't this just the definition of the most desirable of all economic outcomes, a Pareto optimum?" (via via)

By: JPD

JPD — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 11:18:27 -0800

Let's wait to see what shape Brazil is in after the current cycle in resource demand comes to its inevitable end before building a monument to the guy. Their economy is pretty much the first derivative of china.

By: Forktine

Forktine — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 11:25:46 -0800

Obviously Brazil has been a beneficiary of China's rise, but don't forget how big and diverse Brazil's economy is. It's not just soy and mining.

By: anigbrowl

anigbrowl — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 11:41:37 -0800

Excellent article - one of the best long-form pieces I've read in a while.

By: RogerB

RogerB — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 11:42:07 -0800

Perry Anderson is just a treasure. If you like the breadth and effortless analysis on display in this essay, allow me to recommend The New Old World, a collection of similar historical-political essays on postwar Europe from the last couple decades.

By: JPD

JPD — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 11:44:14 -0800

I don't think that is as true as you think it is. Look at the amount of outside investment coming into Brazil - nearly all of that is in the commodities businesses. Sure the services component has grown, but that's due a lot to all of the other money sloshing around. This isn't to say that Brazil has not done an excellent job of managing the upcycle, but just that its too early to be canonizing Lula for his economic policies. You can't possibly know if he's been lucky or he's been good.

By: delmoi

delmoi — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 12:00:23 -0800

Well, it's good that the wealth is being used to help lift up the poor, rather then simply going into the pockets of the already rich.

By: Blazecock Pileon

Blazecock Pileon — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 12:06:02 -0800

Let's wait to see what shape Brazil is in after the current cycle in resource demand comes to its inevitable end I think I heard a Brazilian finance minister talk on BBC about how B. steel is cheaper than Chinese steel, and how their efficient economy is driving construction of a massive new port terminal. Brazil may be more than resources, perhaps.

By: Grimgrin

Grimgrin — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 12:07:49 -0800

Thatcher got lucky with north sea oil and Clinton got lucky with the tech bubble as well. So I think Lula deserves some credit.

By: jet_silver

jet_silver — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 13:05:06 -0800

Embraer shows that Brazil is head and shoulders above China in one of the most demanding markets in the world. This doesn't mean Lula had much to do with it - but the idea that Brazil's economy is "the first derivative of China's" at least has big exceptions.

By: Devils Rancher

Devils Rancher — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 13:34:23 -0800

You can't possibly know if he's been lucky or he's been good. Part of being good is being able to capitalize on favorable circumstances, which it seems like he's done so far, to a pretty good extent. If he'd been utterly corrupt and incompetent, the opportunity could have gone wholly wasted.

By: JPD

JPD — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 13:48:09 -0800

Brazil's steel is cheaper then China's - that's the whole point if it weren't then China wouldn't buy it. - the demand for steel is what matters, not cost. And the massive new port is to export ore and steel to China Embraer is tiny in the grand scheme of things - they had 6 bil in revs, while Vale had 45 bil, and Petrobras had 138 billion. Not to mention a lot of Embraer's revenues are marking up engines and avionics (that actual hugh return/high profit parts of civ aviation). I mean six bil in revenues is pretty small - its the size in terms of revenues and profits as Alliant Techsystems. And yes Thatcher got lucky with north sea oil, and yes Clinton and I would have said the exact thing about something canonizing them in 1999 or 1985.

By: Grimgrin

Grimgrin — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 14:19:40 -0800

JPD: My point was that Lula at least used his good luck to try and improve the lot of the lower classes. Thatcher and Clinton spent their time actively screwing 'em over while using the booming economy as a cover, and that Lula should get some credit for his actions, irrespective of the economic good fortune he experienced.

By: Joe Chip

Joe Chip — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 17:27:38 -0800

Great read, has helped me to understand why so many of Brazilian friends hate Lula and now Dilma so much.

By: dubold

dubold — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 23:06:34 -0800

Great read, has helped me to understand why so many of Brazilian friends hate Lula and now Dilma so much. From the article: Rarer still – indeed, virtually unheard of – is for such popularity to reflect, not appeasement or moderation, but a radicalisation in government. Today, there is only one ruler in the world who can claim this achievement, the former worker who in January stepped down as president of Brazil, enjoying the approval of 80 per cent of its citizens. By any criterion, Luiz Inácio da Silva is the most successful politician of his time. (emphasis mine) I'm curious, what puts your friends in the other 20%?

By: i_am_joe's_spleen

i_am_joe's_spleen — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 16:58:46 -0800

Dubold -- one of my Brazilian friends, who I must say is a child of privilege who has never wanted for money, gave me a lengthy earbashing about Lula and his movement which a) stressed the corruption and b) blamed him for giving sops to the poor while doing nothing to reform Brazil's pretty broken public education system. As far as I could make out, she saw the government benefits provided to the poor as largely wasted and symbolic when that money could have been deployed improving primary schooling.

By: girdyerloins

girdyerloins — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 18:44:11 -0800

Let's not forget that Brazil saw the future of an addiction to petroleum and went whole hog into alcohol as fuel for motor vehicles over twenty years ago. All the while, battling the fallout from years of stupendous currency devaluations, military dictatorship and all the problems a society could possibly suffer under such conditions. And still find time to go collectively insane for a few days once a year during Carnaval. All this before Lula. I admire the man, don't get me wrong, since he was certainly astute enough and determined enough to articulate a vision and get enough people on board to act on it. I'll admit, by the way, to a soft spot in my heart for Brazil and Brazilians, since I spent a few years there as a child and saw the best and the worst. Needless to say, I cheer them on.